Florida at Rutgers
We kick it off with a 15-point prop for the Gators. Florida is favored by 11 in Vegas, 11 (84%) by Pomeroy, and 12.41 by Sagarin. Two historical stats jumped out on this one. First, since Mike Rice took over Rutgers, they have only lost once by 15+ at The RAC. Second, since 2003, Florida is 7-7 in true non-conference road games against high-majors and has not won a single one of those games by more than 10 points.
Florida is a virtual-lock to win this game. They have the most efficient offense in the country and a defense that is better than advertised. Rutgers clearly isn't as good as Florida, but they are great at turning teams over and pounding the offensive glass. With the home-court advantage, look for Rutgers to keep this within 15 and win the prop.
Any Other Result
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Vanderbilt at Marquette
First of all, confession time: I'm a Marquette alum and season-ticket holder, so I see much of the college basketball world through blue-and-gold rimmed glasses. Preseason, I expected this to be a monumental game, with Vanderbilt ranked in the top-ten and hopefully Marquette right there with them. Vandy's four losses knocked a little bit of the luster off this one, and Vegas has the Warriors -8.5, Pomeroy has them winning by 12 (84%), and Sagarin likes Marquette by 14.60. Last year these two teams played a nail-biter, with Vanderbilt winning 77-76 when Darius Johnson-Odom slipped and lost the ball on Marquette's final possession.
But on to this year. Vandy has struggled with senior big man Festus Ezeli battling a combination of a suspension and injuries. Ezeli is expected to be back for this one, but it's doubtful he'll be at full strength. Even still with Marquette's own center, Chris Otule, out with a knee injury, Vanderbilt should be able to do some damage on the offensive glass as effective boxing out is one of Marquette's biggest weaknesses. The Commodores should also have little trouble keeping up with Marquette's quick pace. Vanderbilt has played two ranked opponents this year and took both of them to overtime.
The only hesitation I have with this one is how efficient Marquette is. They are a great offensive team and their defense for the most part has been better this year under Buzz Williams than it's ever been. They also are great at forcing turnovers and beating teams in transition, and against a Vanderbilt team that can't protect the ball, that could be a huge factor. But at the end of the day, this is a very talented Vanderbilt team that isn't as bad as their 8-4 record indicates. They may not get the win in Milwaukee, but they have all the players to keep it close. And if Ezeli's at 100%, an upset isn't out of the question.
Vanderbilt Win or Single-Digit Loss
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Brigham Young at St. Mary's
Pace of play will be very important in this game. Brigham Young plays fast. Really fast. Faster than Memphis, Marquette, or Duke fast. St. Mary's doesn't exactly play slow, but their games average more than 5 fewer possessions per team. Vegas likes St. Mary's -3.5, Pomeroy predicts a 2-point Gael win (59%) and Sagarin likes St. Mary's by 5.97.
Looking at the two teams, BYU seems to be a little bit better across the board. They are a little more efficient on both offense and defense. The reason for the offensive difference is because St. Mary's isn't nearly as good from three-point range (40.3% to 32.3%) and the defensive difference is because St. Mary's really doesn't turn teams over very often. But where they make it up is on the defensive glass. St. Mary's is the best team in the country at limiting offensive rebounds. They are also much better than BYU at hitting the offensive glass. Look for BYU to not get very many second-chance points and St. Mary's to make up the three-point shooting deficit with put-backs of their own.
For BYU to win this game, they need to do two things: they need to control the pace of the game and they need their shots to be falling. In their four games against Pomeroy top-100 teams that play at a pace slower than 68 possessions per game, BYU is 1-3. The home team usually is better at controlling the pace of the game, and I expect this to be no different. Take St. Mary's in a close one.
St. Mary's Win
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