Georgetown at Louisville
At home, the Cards are -5 by the spread, 5.01 favorites per Sagarin, and 4-point favorites (63%) per Pomeroy. And it can't be stressed enough (note to self) that home-court usually plays a big advantage in the Big East.
Looking strictly at the numbers, these teams are incredibly well-matched. The post battle between Sims and Dieng should be fantastic, both teams have excellent freshman wing players in Porter and Behanan, and both teams feature very good guard play. The place where they seem to differ is offensive efficiency. The Hoyas are notably better with the ball, especially when it comes to shooting the three. In addition, Georgetown shouldn't be intimidated by the Yum! Center after beating Memphis in Maui and Alabama on the road.
But back to the first paragraph, closely matched teams and home-court advantage. If there's a road team that could pull an upset tonight, it's Georgetown. But it's very hard picking against a Louisville team that is 30-2 in their new building. Louisville is the pick, but with only one confident ball.
Louisville Win
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Indiana at Michigan State
The Hoosiers have been one of the surprises of the nation this year. After a few years as the doormat of the Big Ten, Tom Crean's team has a few notable wins, including beating then-#1 Kentucky, en route to their current #15 ranking. That said, the oddsmakers don't like them tonight as Crean takes on his mentor, Tom Izzo. Vegas puts Michigan State as -5.5 favorites, Sagarin's predictor has the Spartans as 1.2 point favorites, and Pomeroy likes MSU as 2-point winners (57%).
Compounding the difficulties for Crean's team are injuries that could have Verdell Jones III, Will Sheehey, and Derek Elston all out of the lineup. The trio averages 25.0 points and 8.1 rebounds in 59.2 minutes -- that's a lot of production that could either miss this game or at least be playing at less than full strength. The focus here will be on the match-up between IU super-freshman Cody Zeller and MSU stud Draymond Green. Both players lead their respective teams in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks. But while that will be the great match, the game will be won by the ancillary players. MSU is deep and their guys know their roles.
Indiana's start to the season has been brilliant, but they haven't won at the Breslin Center since 1991. Michigan State is playing much better after their 0-2 start and home court advantage should play a huge role in this one. The only slim hope Indiana has is if they can turn the game into a three-point contest. Unfortunately, Slim just left town. Michigan State with a full three balls of confidence.
Michigan State Win
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Mississippi State vs Baylor
This is billed as a neutral-site game, but Dallas will be anything but neutral for this game with Baylor fans having less than a 2-hour drive and MSU fans 9 hours away. The numbers seem to reflect that, with Baylor a -8.5 favorite, 10.39 favorite (using half-home court advantage) per Sagarin, and 10-point favorites (80% to win) per Pomeroy. With both teams playing fairly up-tempo ball, it seems like Baylor's overall talent advantage should see them to a comfortable win.
However, I wouldn't be so quick to write off the Bulldogs. Baylor has struggled recently in putting away BYU and West Virginia. If Renardo Sidney can play, he along with Arnett Moultrie will give Baylor one of the most imposing tandems in the paint they'll see all year. Baylor has been lazy in allowing too many offensive rebounds, and MSU could make them pay for that.
In a straight pick, I'd have no hesitation picking Baylor, but while wins at BYU and against West Virginia have me convinced they are legit, they haven't won those games with authority. The Bears should win tonight, but look for MSU to keep it close, and if Arnett Moultrie is 100%, Mississippi State could pull off an improbable upset. Due to his health, I'm only willing to put forward two balls on Mississippi State.
Mississippi State Win or Single-Digit Loss
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