Louisville at Kentucky
Let's be honest: the Streakmaster screwed up on this one. It's written "Louisville: Single Digit Win or Loss" and "Kentucky: Double-Digit Win". So in theory, if you take Louisville, you win the prop provided they don't win by double-digits. That's obviously a mistake and should be corrected to "Louisville: Single Digit Loss or Win" by tip-off. If you want to take the chance that the SM screw-up will be rewarded, take the 'Ville, but under the assumption that it will be corrected, I'll analyze it the way it was supposed to be.
Kentucky has rolled so far this year, winning all but one of their games (UNC 73-72) by double-digits. As for numbers, Vegas says -9, Pomeroy says 11, Sagarin says 8.29, all in favor of Kentucky. There's no doubting how good the Wildcats are, with all but one of their wins coming by double-digits. The only question is if Louisville is for real. The Cards have come under a lot of scrutiny since their hot early season start due to a few closer-than-expected wins and the loss to Georgetown on Wednesday. In addition, Kentucky trounced UL last season on their own court.
There are two reasons I like Louisville here. First is the point guard match-up. I'll take the experience of Peyton Siva over the erratic play of Marquis Teague any day, and in a big game, the PG is a major factor. Second is Louisville's depth. They have 10 players that average 8+ minutes, and won't be run off the court by Kentucky. Expect a lot of full-court press to force Teague into turnovers and keep Louisville within spitting distance. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Cards win this outright, and either way it should be close. Besides, if the SM doesn't fix the wrong wording, you can't go wrong with an automatic win or push prop.
Louisville Single Digit Loss or Win
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Virginia Tech at Oklahoma State
This is the second time these teams have met this year, the first time was a neutral site affair in which the Hokies prevailed 59-57. This time OSU is at home, which has them as a -3 favorite from Vegas, a 1-point favorite from Pomeroy, and a 0.05 favorite from Sagarin. Doesn't get much closer than that.
Here's why picking the Cowboys scares me: Against teams in Pomeroy's top-300, every single game has either been decided by single digits or gone to overtime. They are 4-5 in those games, with all five losses coming against teams in the top-50 (but also all away from home).
The last time these two teams met, Virginia Tech won despite not scoring a field goal over the past six minutes of the game and only going 10/17 from the line in that span. OSU's offense is horrendous. I can't see a team that can't make baskets, no matter whose court the game is on, beating a Virginia Tech team that is solid on both ends of the court. Take the Hokies in the mild upset.
Virginia Tech Win
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Providence at Georgetown
Home court is huge in the Big East, which is why Vegas has the Hoyas at -14, Pomeroy has them winning by 18, and Sagarin's predictor likes the Hoyas by 19.88. Georgetown's win at Louisville proved they are for real, and to back that up they have a top-20 most efficient offense and defense. Providence's loss at St. John's also exposed them as being a bit weaker than their record indicates, though losing both games they played against kenpom top-100 teams by double digits was a better early indicator.
After the Louisville win, some might expect a letdown for Georgetown. I don't. This team is far better than anyone expected in the preseason, and they should roll comfortably over Providence.
Georgetown Win by 15+
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Illinois at Purdue
First of all, the spread is Purdue -7, Pomeroy likes the Boilermakers by 6, and Sagarin says Purdue by 4.47. Illinois has averaged 6.3 three-point makes per game on 19.6 attempts and are shooting 32.1% from beyond the arc. The more numbers I look at, the more I make myself crazy with this prop.
Here's what I think is most important: both teams play at a fairly slow pace and both teams are very good defensively. That should keep this game very close. Illinois might be good enough to win this one outright, and if they are trailing, they may well need to heave up some threes to stay in the game. They aren't a great three-point shooting team, but at nearly 20 a game, they do like to put them up. In addition, I love Illinois' edge in the front court. Leonard and Griffey should pound Purdue on the glass and get their share of second chance points to keep the margin down.
Illinois 3-Pointers Made or Tie
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North Dakota at Kansas
After botching the Duke prop yesterday, this one has me walking on eggshells. The mistake I made was focusing on the tendencies of the inferior team, when it's usually the superior team that dictates pace of play. The spread is Kansas -33, Pomeroy also says 33, while Sagarin's predictor comes out at 27.53 in favor of the Jayhawks. But over the past three years, Kansas has played 10 sub-200 kenpom opponents at home, and they have won by 35+ in 9 of those games. Further, North Dakota plays at a fast tempo, which means they will be happy to run with the Jayhawks, allowing Kansas to further build their lead. It will be a Kansas beatdown regardless, and I like them to cover the 35 points.
Kansas Win by 35+
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Ohio State at Indiana
I imagine the Indiana students already have their court-storming shoes on. They seem to storm the court for everything. After beating an Illinois team that was only ranked #21 last year, Indiana stormed the court. And this year they stormed the court after beating #1 Kentucky even though they came into the game undefeated. I have no doubt that Indiana will again storm the court if they win today, even though they'd be a top-15 team winning at home, hardly worthy of court-storming.
Regardless, Vegas has OSU -5.5, Pomeroy likes the Buckeyes by 3 (59% probability of winning), but Sagarin likes Indiana by 1.86. While Indiana may have shocked an unsuspecting Kentucky team on a miracle shot at the buzzer, they won't be sneaking up on Ohio State. And while Indiana can shoot the lights out from three, they have yet to face a defense as good as Ohio State's. OSU is also fantastic on the glass, and Cody Zeller just doesn't seem to have the physicality yet to handle a player like Jared Sullinger. In addition, it's still up in the air if Will Sheehey will play for the Hoosiers, and after playing on Wednesday, Verdell Jones is listed as doubtful (though I expect him to play). This is my favorite pick of the day. Ohio State has won six straight over the Hoosiers and should make it seven this evening.
Ohio State Win
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Gonzaga at Xavier
Since brawling with the Bearcats, Xavier has dropped 3 of 4 and didn't exactly overwhelm lowly Southern Illinois in their only win. The Musketeers get Dez Wells back today and are at full strength for the first time since the infamous Cincinnati game. Vegas likes Xavier -3, Pomeroy likes Gonzaga by 1 (52%), and Sagarin has the Zags as a slim 0.27 favorite. It's tough to know what to make of Xavier right now. They seem to have lost their cohesion since the fight, and while Tu Holloway is playing fine, the rest of the team has been inconsistent at best in their past four games.
Despite the physical nature of that fight, when I look at these teams, I really like Gonzaga's potential to out-muscle Xavier. They have three guys down low in Sacre, Harris, and Dower that will hit the boards hard. And while Kenny Frease looks the part, he isn't nearly the physical presence Xavier needs to offset the Bulldogs' strength down low. This should be a close game, but it's almost impossible to predict which Xavier team shows up. I like Gonzaga to win, but I wouldn't put any sort of long streak on it.
Gonzaga Win
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Oregon at Washington
Another game with two teams that are tough to figure. The Huskies are -8 in Vegas, Pomeroy also says 8, and Sheridan says 4.26. This will be a fast-paced game and a lot of points are going to be scored. But looking at the Huskies, they've struggled to put teams away this year. In five games against kenpom top-150 opposition at home, they have only won by double-digits twice. Against Oregon State, it was a 3-point game with under 3:00 to play before the Huskies finished on a 12-0 run.
Oregon, however, isn't one to inspire confidence. They have lost three games, all by double-digits. Against top-100 kenpom teams they are only 1-3 in covering this prop, and the one came against a Washington State team that isn't nearly as good as these Huskies can be. And with Tyrone Nared still injured, Oregon will only have 9 scholarship players suiting up and will be a bit outsized by Washington.
The Huskies had a poor non-conference run, but now that conference play has started, I expect them to pick it up. They should get a double-digit win tonight, and since it's the last game of the year, why not put the streak on it?
Washington Win by Double-Digits
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