SFTC Picks: 12-31-11

Louisville at Kentucky

Let's be honest: the Streakmaster screwed up on this one. It's written "Louisville: Single Digit Win or Loss" and "Kentucky: Double-Digit Win". So in theory, if you take Louisville, you win the prop provided they don't win by double-digits. That's obviously a mistake and should be corrected to "Louisville: Single Digit Loss or Win" by tip-off. If you want to take the chance that the SM screw-up will be rewarded, take the 'Ville, but under the assumption that it will be corrected, I'll analyze it the way it was supposed to be.

Kentucky has rolled so far this year, winning all but one of their games (UNC 73-72) by double-digits. As for numbers, Vegas says -9, Pomeroy says 11, Sagarin says 8.29, all in favor of Kentucky. There's no doubting how good the Wildcats are, with all but one of their wins coming by double-digits. The only question is if Louisville is for real. The Cards have come under a lot of scrutiny since their hot early season start due to a few closer-than-expected wins and the loss to Georgetown on Wednesday. In addition, Kentucky trounced UL last season on their own court.

There are two reasons I like Louisville here. First is the point guard match-up. I'll take the experience of Peyton Siva over the erratic play of Marquis Teague any day, and in a big game, the PG is a major factor. Second is Louisville's depth. They have 10 players that average 8+ minutes, and won't be run off the court by Kentucky. Expect a lot of full-court press to force Teague into turnovers and keep Louisville within spitting distance. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Cards win this outright, and either way it should be close. Besides, if the SM doesn't fix the wrong wording, you can't go wrong with an automatic win or push prop.

Louisville Single Digit Loss or Win

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Virginia Tech at Oklahoma State

This is the second time these teams have met this year, the first time was a neutral site affair in which the Hokies prevailed 59-57. This time OSU is at home, which has them as a -3 favorite from Vegas, a 1-point favorite from Pomeroy, and a 0.05 favorite from Sagarin. Doesn't get much closer than that.

Here's why picking the Cowboys scares me: Against teams in Pomeroy's top-300, every single game has either been decided by single digits or gone to overtime. They are 4-5 in those games, with all five losses coming against teams in the top-50 (but also all away from home).

The last time these two teams met, Virginia Tech won despite not scoring a field goal over the past six minutes of the game and only going 10/17 from the line in that span. OSU's offense is horrendous. I can't see a team that can't make baskets, no matter whose court the game is on, beating a Virginia Tech team that is solid on both ends of the court. Take the Hokies in the mild upset.

Virginia Tech Win

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Providence at Georgetown

Home court is huge in the Big East, which is why Vegas has the Hoyas at -14, Pomeroy has them winning by 18, and Sagarin's predictor likes the Hoyas by 19.88. Georgetown's win at Louisville proved they are for real, and to back that up they have a top-20 most efficient offense and defense. Providence's loss at St. John's also exposed them as being a bit weaker than their record indicates, though losing both games they played against kenpom top-100 teams by double digits was a better early indicator.

After the Louisville win, some might expect a letdown for Georgetown. I don't. This team is far better than anyone expected in the preseason, and they should roll comfortably over Providence.

Georgetown Win by 15+

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Illinois at Purdue

First of all, the spread is Purdue -7, Pomeroy likes the Boilermakers by 6, and Sagarin says Purdue by 4.47. Illinois has averaged 6.3 three-point makes per game on 19.6 attempts and are shooting 32.1% from beyond the arc. The more numbers I look at, the more I make myself crazy with this prop.

Here's what I think is most important: both teams play at a fairly slow pace and both teams are very good defensively. That should keep this game very close. Illinois might be good enough to win this one outright, and if they are trailing, they may well need to heave up some threes to stay in the game. They aren't a great three-point shooting team, but at nearly 20 a game, they do like to put them up. In addition, I love Illinois' edge in the front court. Leonard and Griffey should pound Purdue on the glass and get their share of second chance points to keep the margin down.

Illinois 3-Pointers Made or Tie

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North Dakota at Kansas

After botching the Duke prop yesterday, this one has me walking on eggshells. The mistake I made was focusing on the tendencies of the inferior team, when it's usually the superior team that dictates pace of play. The spread is Kansas -33, Pomeroy also says 33, while Sagarin's predictor comes out at 27.53 in favor of the Jayhawks. But over the past three years, Kansas has played 10 sub-200 kenpom opponents at home, and they have won by 35+ in 9 of those games. Further, North Dakota plays at a fast tempo, which means they will be happy to run with the Jayhawks, allowing Kansas to further build their lead. It will be a Kansas beatdown regardless, and I like them to cover the 35 points.

Kansas Win by 35+

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Ohio State at Indiana

I imagine the Indiana students already have their court-storming shoes on. They seem to storm the court for everything. After beating an Illinois team that was only ranked #21 last year, Indiana stormed the court. And this year they stormed the court after beating #1 Kentucky even though they came into the game undefeated. I have no doubt that Indiana will again storm the court if they win today, even though they'd be a top-15 team winning at home, hardly worthy of court-storming.

Regardless, Vegas has OSU -5.5, Pomeroy likes the Buckeyes by 3 (59% probability of winning), but Sagarin likes Indiana by 1.86. While Indiana may have shocked an unsuspecting Kentucky team on a miracle shot at the buzzer, they won't be sneaking up on Ohio State. And while Indiana can shoot the lights out from three, they have yet to face a defense as good as Ohio State's. OSU is also fantastic on the glass, and Cody Zeller just doesn't seem to have the physicality yet to handle a player like Jared Sullinger. In addition, it's still up in the air if Will Sheehey will play for the Hoosiers, and after playing on Wednesday, Verdell Jones is listed as doubtful (though I expect him to play). This is my favorite pick of the day. Ohio State has won six straight over the Hoosiers and should make it seven this evening.

Ohio State Win

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Gonzaga at Xavier

Since brawling with the Bearcats, Xavier has dropped 3 of 4 and didn't exactly overwhelm lowly Southern Illinois in their only win. The Musketeers get Dez Wells back today and are at full strength for the first time since the infamous Cincinnati game. Vegas likes Xavier -3, Pomeroy likes Gonzaga by 1 (52%), and Sagarin has the Zags as a slim 0.27 favorite. It's tough to know what to make of Xavier right now. They seem to have lost their cohesion since the fight, and while Tu Holloway is playing fine, the rest of the team has been inconsistent at best in their past four games.

Despite the physical nature of that fight, when I look at these teams, I really like Gonzaga's potential to out-muscle Xavier. They have three guys down low in Sacre, Harris, and Dower that will hit the boards hard. And while Kenny Frease looks the part, he isn't nearly the physical presence Xavier needs to offset the Bulldogs' strength down low. This should be a close game, but it's almost impossible to predict which Xavier team shows up. I like Gonzaga to win, but I wouldn't put any sort of long streak on it.

Gonzaga Win

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Oregon at Washington

Another game with two teams that are tough to figure. The Huskies are -8 in Vegas, Pomeroy also says 8, and Sheridan says 4.26. This will be a fast-paced game and a lot of points are going to be scored. But looking at the Huskies, they've struggled to put teams away this year. In five games against kenpom top-150 opposition at home, they have only won by double-digits twice. Against Oregon State, it was a 3-point game with under 3:00 to play before the Huskies finished on a 12-0 run.

Oregon, however, isn't one to inspire confidence. They have lost three games, all by double-digits. Against top-100 kenpom teams they are only 1-3 in covering this prop, and the one came against a Washington State team that isn't nearly as good as these Huskies can be. And with Tyrone Nared still injured, Oregon will only have 9 scholarship players suiting up and will be a bit outsized by Washington.

The Huskies had a poor non-conference run, but now that conference play has started, I expect them to pick it up. They should get a double-digit win tonight, and since it's the last game of the year, why not put the streak on it?

Washington Win by Double-Digits

SFTC Picks: 12-30-11

Western Michigan at Duke

I expect most will look at the Western Michigan/Purdue game and say "If the Boilers beat them by 43, Duke will cover this easy!" Of course, it's never that simple. Duke is favored by -20.5, Pomeroy has them as 21-point favorites, and Sagarin's predictor has Duke by 21.56. All three are big numbers, but all three are also more than a couple points less than 25.

I'm not going to bother looking for ways Western Michigan will compete in this game. Instead, I went back over the past 5 seasons for Steve Hawkins' Broncos and noticed that the pasting by Purdue was only the second time in five years they lost by 25+. In their past 154 games, the Broncos have lost by 25+ less than 1.3% of the time.

Duke will win the game, but Western Michigan isn't nearly as bad as the Presbyterian or UNC-Greensboro teams that Duke destroyed. The Blue Devils haven't played in 10 days, and have only played once since Dec. 10. They could show a bit of rust, and with Western Michigan playing well of late, they should be able to keep it marginally competitive. Look for WMU to cover both the prop and the spread.

Any Other Result

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West Virginia at Seton Hall

The oddsmakers couldn't be much closer. Vegas has this as a Pick 'Em game, Pomeroy has SHU winning by 1 but his 50% probability indicates a toss up, and Sagarin likes Seton Hall by 1.82 because of home court.

These teams are very well-matched. West Virginia rebounds a bit better, Seton Hall is better at forcing turnovers. Both teams are led by a pair of solid seniors. West Virginia is definitely the better team on offense, but home court favors the Pirates. In Big East play so far, the home team has gone 4-2. Seton Hall will be anxious to right the ship after losing to Syracuse, and in a game where there isn't much to pick between the teams, home court often makes the difference.

I'd advise avoiding this one like the plague. Way too close to call. I'm taking the home team to win this one, but if you don't have to pick this, then don't.

Seton Hall Win

STFC Picks: 12-29-11

Florida at Rutgers

We kick it off with a 15-point prop for the Gators. Florida is favored by 11 in Vegas, 11 (84%) by Pomeroy, and 12.41 by Sagarin. Two historical stats jumped out on this one. First, since Mike Rice took over Rutgers, they have only lost once by 15+ at The RAC. Second, since 2003, Florida is 7-7 in true non-conference road games against high-majors and has not won a single one of those games by more than 10 points.

Florida is a virtual-lock to win this game. They have the most efficient offense in the country and a defense that is better than advertised. Rutgers clearly isn't as good as Florida, but they are great at turning teams over and pounding the offensive glass. With the home-court advantage, look for Rutgers to keep this within 15 and win the prop.

Any Other Result

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Vanderbilt at Marquette

First of all, confession time: I'm a Marquette alum and season-ticket holder, so I see much of the college basketball world through blue-and-gold rimmed glasses. Preseason, I expected this to be a monumental game, with Vanderbilt ranked in the top-ten and hopefully Marquette right there with them. Vandy's four losses knocked a little bit of the luster off this one, and Vegas has the Warriors -8.5, Pomeroy has them winning by 12 (84%), and Sagarin likes Marquette by 14.60. Last year these two teams played a nail-biter, with Vanderbilt winning 77-76 when Darius Johnson-Odom slipped and lost the ball on Marquette's final possession.

But on to this year. Vandy has struggled with senior big man Festus Ezeli battling a combination of a suspension and injuries. Ezeli is expected to be back for this one, but it's doubtful he'll be at full strength. Even still with Marquette's own center, Chris Otule, out with a knee injury, Vanderbilt should be able to do some damage on the offensive glass as effective boxing out is one of Marquette's biggest weaknesses. The Commodores should also have little trouble keeping up with Marquette's quick pace. Vanderbilt has played two ranked opponents this year and took both of them to overtime.

The only hesitation I have with this one is how efficient Marquette is. They are a great offensive team and their defense for the most part has been better this year under Buzz Williams than it's ever been. They also are great at forcing turnovers and beating teams in transition, and against a Vanderbilt team that can't protect the ball, that could be a huge factor. But at the end of the day, this is a very talented Vanderbilt team that isn't as bad as their 8-4 record indicates. They may not get the win in Milwaukee, but they have all the players to keep it close. And if Ezeli's at 100%, an upset isn't out of the question.

Vanderbilt Win or Single-Digit Loss

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Brigham Young at St. Mary's

Pace of play will be very important in this game. Brigham Young plays fast. Really fast. Faster than Memphis, Marquette, or Duke fast. St. Mary's doesn't exactly play slow, but their games average more than 5 fewer possessions per team. Vegas likes St. Mary's -3.5, Pomeroy predicts a 2-point Gael win (59%) and Sagarin likes St. Mary's by 5.97.

Looking at the two teams, BYU seems to be a little bit better across the board. They are a little more efficient on both offense and defense. The reason for the offensive difference is because St. Mary's isn't nearly as good from three-point range (40.3% to 32.3%) and the defensive difference is because St. Mary's really doesn't turn teams over very often. But where they make it up is on the defensive glass. St. Mary's is the best team in the country at limiting offensive rebounds. They are also much better than BYU at hitting the offensive glass. Look for BYU to not get very many second-chance points and St. Mary's to make up the three-point shooting deficit with put-backs of their own.

For BYU to win this game, they need to do two things: they need to control the pace of the game and they need their shots to be falling. In their four games against Pomeroy top-100 teams that play at a pace slower than 68 possessions per game, BYU is 1-3. The home team usually is better at controlling the pace of the game, and I expect this to be no different. Take St. Mary's in a close one.

St. Mary's Win

SFTC Picks: 12-28-11

Three college basketball games on the list today, and all of them feature match-ups between a pair of ranked teams. If nothing else, it should be a great day of viewing for the neutral.

Georgetown at Louisville

At home, the Cards are -5 by the spread, 5.01 favorites per Sagarin, and 4-point favorites (63%) per Pomeroy. And it can't be stressed enough (note to self) that home-court usually plays a big advantage in the Big East.

Looking strictly at the numbers, these teams are incredibly well-matched. The post battle between Sims and Dieng should be fantastic, both teams have excellent freshman wing players in Porter and Behanan, and both teams feature very good guard play. The place where they seem to differ is offensive efficiency. The Hoyas are notably better with the ball, especially when it comes to shooting the three. In addition, Georgetown shouldn't be intimidated by the Yum! Center after beating Memphis in Maui and Alabama on the road.

But back to the first paragraph, closely matched teams and home-court advantage. If there's a road team that could pull an upset tonight, it's Georgetown. But it's very hard picking against a Louisville team that is 30-2 in their new building. Louisville is the pick, but with only one confident ball.

Louisville Win

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Indiana at Michigan State

The Hoosiers have been one of the surprises of the nation this year. After a few years as the doormat of the Big Ten, Tom Crean's team has a few notable wins, including beating then-#1 Kentucky, en route to their current #15 ranking. That said, the oddsmakers don't like them tonight as Crean takes on his mentor, Tom Izzo. Vegas puts Michigan State as -5.5 favorites, Sagarin's predictor has the Spartans as 1.2 point favorites, and Pomeroy likes MSU as 2-point winners (57%).

Compounding the difficulties for Crean's team are injuries that could have Verdell Jones III, Will Sheehey, and Derek Elston all out of the lineup. The trio averages 25.0 points and 8.1 rebounds in 59.2 minutes -- that's a lot of production that could either miss this game or at least be playing at less than full strength. The focus here will be on the match-up between IU super-freshman Cody Zeller and MSU stud Draymond Green. Both players lead their respective teams in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks. But while that will be the great match, the game will be won by the ancillary players. MSU is deep and their guys know their roles.

Indiana's start to the season has been brilliant, but they haven't won at the Breslin Center since 1991. Michigan State is playing much better after their 0-2 start and home court advantage should play a huge role in this one. The only slim hope Indiana has is if they can turn the game into a three-point contest. Unfortunately, Slim just left town. Michigan State with a full three balls of confidence.

Michigan State Win

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Mississippi State vs Baylor

This is billed as a neutral-site game, but Dallas will be anything but neutral for this game with Baylor fans having less than a 2-hour drive and MSU fans 9 hours away. The numbers seem to reflect that, with Baylor a -8.5 favorite, 10.39 favorite (using half-home court advantage) per Sagarin, and 10-point favorites (80% to win) per Pomeroy. With both teams playing fairly up-tempo ball, it seems like Baylor's overall talent advantage should see them to a comfortable win.

However, I wouldn't be so quick to write off the Bulldogs. Baylor has struggled recently in putting away BYU and West Virginia. If Renardo Sidney can play, he along with Arnett Moultrie will give Baylor one of the most imposing tandems in the paint they'll see all year. Baylor has been lazy in allowing too many offensive rebounds, and MSU could make them pay for that.

In a straight pick, I'd have no hesitation picking Baylor, but while wins at BYU and against West Virginia have me convinced they are legit, they haven't won those games with authority. The Bears should win tonight, but look for MSU to keep it close, and if Arnett Moultrie is 100%, Mississippi State could pull off an improbable upset. Due to his health, I'm only willing to put forward two balls on Mississippi State.

Mississippi State Win or Single-Digit Loss

STFC Picks: 12-27-11

So here's my first crack at making picks. I'm going to stick with the one sport I have a decent grasp on, men's college basketball. My confidence will be based on how many balls I'm putting out there, similar to RDB's thumbs if you follow his great bunnypicks blog for soccer picks. Without further ado, let's get to the games.

Pittsburgh at Notre Dame

Earlier this year, the Big East regular season title race came down to these two teams. But anyone following the sport this year can see that these clearly aren't the same teams. The Panthers are -1.5 on the road at Notre Dame and coming off a loss to Wagner. The Irish are favored by 1 (52%) by Pomeroy and sport an 8-0 home record.  Sagarin's predictor would have Pittsburgh as a 0.72 favorite.

While the numbers have this a dead-heat, Notre Dame without Abromaitis is simply not the same team. Their 8 wins have been piled up against weak competition -- the highest-rated team by kenpom.com that they beat was #148 Detroit. Pitt did have a couple home defeats, but both Long Beach St and Wagner are good mid-majors, and the Panthers have won games away from home already this year, beating Penn and Tennessee on the road and Oklahoma State and Duquesne at neutral sites. In addition, word out of Pittsburgh is that PG Tray Woodall could make his return tonight, which would make Ashton Gibbs' life a lot easier.

Pitt is a more efficient team offensively than ND by far and will win this game on the glass. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, not because of any one player but because they have four guys averaging 5+ rebounds. Notre Dame has a huge home court advantage and hasn't lost at the Joyce in an eternity, but Pitt is the better team and the right pick here. Irish home court is the only thing that keeps me from full confidence, but I'm still willing to put two balls on this one.

Pittsburgh Win

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Providence at St. John's

St. John's thin roster got a boost when Amir Garrett regained his eligibility and debuted in the comeback win against Texas Pan-American. Even still, the Johnnies are very thin this year, and will have to slow the pace against the Friars. Providence are -1.5 favorites by the bookies, 1-point (50%) favorites by Pomeroy, and 3.58 favorites per Sagarin.

Looking at the records, Providence looks like a lock. They come in 11-2, with both losses to quality opponents and a pair of high-major road wins. St. John's also has a few losses to quality opponents, but included in their 6-5 record are losses to Northeastern and Detroit. Steve Lavin hasn't been fully available due to his cancer surgery and a number of players were ruled ineligible or transferred already for St. John's. Garrett's comeback is a plus, but still only gives them 7 high-major players. Against a team that likes to play fast in Providence, that will be a detriment.

This is going to be a long season for St. John's, and Ed Cooley will be anxious to prove that Providence's weak non-conference schedule wasn't just fool's gold. Of the early picks, I think Pitt is a little bit better of a choice, but I'll put two balls on Providence for the win.

Providence Win

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Minnesota at Illinois

I'm shocked this game is up here. Illinois are -5.5 favorites, favored by 3 per Pomeroy (61%), and 3.77 favorites on the Sagarin predictor. But what really stands out is Illinois being at home and Minnesota without their leading scorer and rebounder in Trevor Mbakwe. While Minnesota hasn't lost since that injury (excluding the game in which he injured the knee) they also haven't faced the toughest of competition. The Gophers also haven't played a true road game yet this season. The Illini have played great defense and have yet to lose at home. This one looks so easy, it almost unnerves me that it's up there, but I can't see anything other than Meyers Leonard dominating the paint and Illinois rolling to a fairly comfortable win.

Illinois Win

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Wisconsin at Nebraska

One of the stats I look at the most, especially in "Win by X" props, is pace. Teams that play fast are more likely to win by large margins because they have more opportunities to score. Teams that play slow are more likely to win by small margins because they are more focused on shortening the game than widening the lead. Wisconsin, however, is the exception to that second tendency.

I could probably write an entire essay on this topic, but the basics are this. Less-talented teams will often try to slow the pace of the game to keep it close and give them a chance to win at the end. This gives many fans the illusion that these teams have great defenses because of low average points allowed. However, points in a game is not really a significant statistic. Points per possession, on the other hand, is. To use two examples, Pittsburgh gives up an average of 64.8 ppg while North Carolina gives up 67.4 ppg. At a glance, it would seem like Pitt has a better defense, but they play at a vastly different pace. On average, Pitt games feature 62.6 possessions per game, while UNC games have 74.2 possessions. So UNC opponents score less than three more points per game but have over eleven trips to get those points.

So what does all that have to do with this prop? Well, Wisconsin plays at the slowest pace in the nation. That would lead most people to believe they would typically win by small margins. But unlike most slow-paced teams, Wisconsin has the lowest allowed points per possession in the country. And of the 100 slowest teams in the nation, the Badgers are the only one to be ranked in the top-25 in both highest points scored per possession and fewest points allowed per possession. That's the reason that only one of their eleven wins was by single digits.

Vegas has Bucky as -8.5 favorites, Pomeroy has them as 13-point winners (92%), and Sagarin's predictor says Wisconsin by 9.95. Nebraska plays almost as slow as Wisconsin and isn't good at turning opponents over, so hopes of disrupting the Badgers like UNC and Marquette did is out the window. I will give Nebraska the slight advantage that it is their Big Ten opener and they are playing at home, but I still like Wisconsin. Happy to drop my two balls of confidence.

Wisconsin Win By Double Digits