Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
Earlier this year, the Big East regular season title race came down to these two teams. But anyone following the sport this year can see that these clearly aren't the same teams. The Panthers are -1.5 on the road at Notre Dame and coming off a loss to Wagner. The Irish are favored by 1 (52%) by Pomeroy and sport an 8-0 home record. Sagarin's predictor would have Pittsburgh as a 0.72 favorite.
While the numbers have this a dead-heat, Notre Dame without Abromaitis is simply not the same team. Their 8 wins have been piled up against weak competition -- the highest-rated team by kenpom.com that they beat was #148 Detroit. Pitt did have a couple home defeats, but both Long Beach St and Wagner are good mid-majors, and the Panthers have won games away from home already this year, beating Penn and Tennessee on the road and Oklahoma State and Duquesne at neutral sites. In addition, word out of Pittsburgh is that PG Tray Woodall could make his return tonight, which would make Ashton Gibbs' life a lot easier.
Pitt is a more efficient team offensively than ND by far and will win this game on the glass. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, not because of any one player but because they have four guys averaging 5+ rebounds. Notre Dame has a huge home court advantage and hasn't lost at the Joyce in an eternity, but Pitt is the better team and the right pick here. Irish home court is the only thing that keeps me from full confidence, but I'm still willing to put two balls on this one.
Pittsburgh Win
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Providence at St. John's
St. John's thin roster got a boost when Amir Garrett regained his eligibility and debuted in the comeback win against Texas Pan-American. Even still, the Johnnies are very thin this year, and will have to slow the pace against the Friars. Providence are -1.5 favorites by the bookies, 1-point (50%) favorites by Pomeroy, and 3.58 favorites per Sagarin.
Looking at the records, Providence looks like a lock. They come in 11-2, with both losses to quality opponents and a pair of high-major road wins. St. John's also has a few losses to quality opponents, but included in their 6-5 record are losses to Northeastern and Detroit. Steve Lavin hasn't been fully available due to his cancer surgery and a number of players were ruled ineligible or transferred already for St. John's. Garrett's comeback is a plus, but still only gives them 7 high-major players. Against a team that likes to play fast in Providence, that will be a detriment.
This is going to be a long season for St. John's, and Ed Cooley will be anxious to prove that Providence's weak non-conference schedule wasn't just fool's gold. Of the early picks, I think Pitt is a little bit better of a choice, but I'll put two balls on Providence for the win.
Providence Win
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Minnesota at Illinois
I'm shocked this game is up here. Illinois are -5.5 favorites, favored by 3 per Pomeroy (61%), and 3.77 favorites on the Sagarin predictor. But what really stands out is Illinois being at home and Minnesota without their leading scorer and rebounder in Trevor Mbakwe. While Minnesota hasn't lost since that injury (excluding the game in which he injured the knee) they also haven't faced the toughest of competition. The Gophers also haven't played a true road game yet this season. The Illini have played great defense and have yet to lose at home. This one looks so easy, it almost unnerves me that it's up there, but I can't see anything other than Meyers Leonard dominating the paint and Illinois rolling to a fairly comfortable win.
Illinois Win
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Wisconsin at Nebraska
One of the stats I look at the most, especially in "Win by X" props, is pace. Teams that play fast are more likely to win by large margins because they have more opportunities to score. Teams that play slow are more likely to win by small margins because they are more focused on shortening the game than widening the lead. Wisconsin, however, is the exception to that second tendency.
I could probably write an entire essay on this topic, but the basics are this. Less-talented teams will often try to slow the pace of the game to keep it close and give them a chance to win at the end. This gives many fans the illusion that these teams have great defenses because of low average points allowed. However, points in a game is not really a significant statistic. Points per possession, on the other hand, is. To use two examples, Pittsburgh gives up an average of 64.8 ppg while North Carolina gives up 67.4 ppg. At a glance, it would seem like Pitt has a better defense, but they play at a vastly different pace. On average, Pitt games feature 62.6 possessions per game, while UNC games have 74.2 possessions. So UNC opponents score less than three more points per game but have over eleven trips to get those points.
So what does all that have to do with this prop? Well, Wisconsin plays at the slowest pace in the nation. That would lead most people to believe they would typically win by small margins. But unlike most slow-paced teams, Wisconsin has the lowest allowed points per possession in the country. And of the 100 slowest teams in the nation, the Badgers are the only one to be ranked in the top-25 in both highest points scored per possession and fewest points allowed per possession. That's the reason that only one of their eleven wins was by single digits.
Vegas has Bucky as -8.5 favorites, Pomeroy has them as 13-point winners (92%), and Sagarin's predictor says Wisconsin by 9.95. Nebraska plays almost as slow as Wisconsin and isn't good at turning opponents over, so hopes of disrupting the Badgers like UNC and Marquette did is out the window. I will give Nebraska the slight advantage that it is their Big Ten opener and they are playing at home, but I still like Wisconsin. Happy to drop my two balls of confidence.
Wisconsin Win By Double Digits
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