SFTC Picks: 12-30-11

Western Michigan at Duke

I expect most will look at the Western Michigan/Purdue game and say "If the Boilers beat them by 43, Duke will cover this easy!" Of course, it's never that simple. Duke is favored by -20.5, Pomeroy has them as 21-point favorites, and Sagarin's predictor has Duke by 21.56. All three are big numbers, but all three are also more than a couple points less than 25.

I'm not going to bother looking for ways Western Michigan will compete in this game. Instead, I went back over the past 5 seasons for Steve Hawkins' Broncos and noticed that the pasting by Purdue was only the second time in five years they lost by 25+. In their past 154 games, the Broncos have lost by 25+ less than 1.3% of the time.

Duke will win the game, but Western Michigan isn't nearly as bad as the Presbyterian or UNC-Greensboro teams that Duke destroyed. The Blue Devils haven't played in 10 days, and have only played once since Dec. 10. They could show a bit of rust, and with Western Michigan playing well of late, they should be able to keep it marginally competitive. Look for WMU to cover both the prop and the spread.

Any Other Result

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West Virginia at Seton Hall

The oddsmakers couldn't be much closer. Vegas has this as a Pick 'Em game, Pomeroy has SHU winning by 1 but his 50% probability indicates a toss up, and Sagarin likes Seton Hall by 1.82 because of home court.

These teams are very well-matched. West Virginia rebounds a bit better, Seton Hall is better at forcing turnovers. Both teams are led by a pair of solid seniors. West Virginia is definitely the better team on offense, but home court favors the Pirates. In Big East play so far, the home team has gone 4-2. Seton Hall will be anxious to right the ship after losing to Syracuse, and in a game where there isn't much to pick between the teams, home court often makes the difference.

I'd advise avoiding this one like the plague. Way too close to call. I'm taking the home team to win this one, but if you don't have to pick this, then don't.

Seton Hall Win