SFTC Picks: 1-4-12

Duke at Temple

Really surprised to see this as a ten-point prop for the Blue Devils. The spread has them -7, Pomeroy has them with a 5-point win, Sagarin says 6.21. Temple hasn't lost at home in over 2 years, though that last loss was a 32-point walloping by Kansas.

The more I looked at this game, the more some trends started to stick out. First, Temple has been struggling recently. Close wins over Rice, Buffalo (in OT), and Delaware aren't exactly inspiring. Meanwhile, Duke is taking off with Quinn Cook in the starting lineup. They are playing faster, the freshman has a ridiculous 17/0 turnover/assist ratio in the past two games, and they've been rebounding better. That's particularly worrying for a Temple team that has been doing poorly hitting the glass since the Eric injury.

Duke has the superior talent and will try to out-run the Owls. While the initial double-digit prop surprised me, I like Duke to cover.

Duke Win by Double Digits

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Marquette at Georgetown

The dreaded 3-point prop, and my own Marquette Warriors being the subject of it. Nothing but to get to it. Vegas like Georgetown -4.5, Pomeroy says Georgetown by 7, and Sagarin says 7.90. Marquette averages 5.6 threes per game and at 33.9% is a fairly average team from beyond the arc. And Buzz Williams emphasizes paint touches, which means he wants his offense to push it inside before settling for a shot from range.

Georgetown is the 11th best team in the nation at defending the three-point line, holding opponents to 27%. That tenacity will likely make things difficult on the Warriors, and as a team that has shown a tendency to pound down low with Gardner and let their guards drive rather than bombing shots, I could easily see Marquette going away from the three-ball as a weapon. Further, Georgetown's home court advantage and equivalent talent should allow them to control the pace of the game, which will slow things down. While this could lead to a close margin, Marquette sometimes struggles at a slower pace (see Norfolk State, LSU).

My only hesitation here is that Marquette could win this game outright. I don't expect them to, but Buzz Williams' team has a tendency to keep games close on the road, giving them the chance to steal them at the end. Still, if I were picking this one, I'd pick the Hoyas.

Georgetown Winning Margin

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West Virginia at Rutgers

Yes, Rutgers upset Florida, we're all happy for them, but seriously? Vegas has WVU as -3 on the road, Pomeroy says 4-point winners (62% probability) Sagarin says 6.89 for the Mountaineers. After losing to South Florida, Rutgers is 1-6 against Pomeroy top-150 opponents, including losses to LSU and Princeton at home. West Virginia is the much better team on both ends of the court. While home court is a big factor in the Big East, I can't pass on WVU here.

West Virginia Win

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Kansas State at Kansas

The Jayhawks are favored by -8.5, Pomeroy says 10, and Sagarin says 6.94. This will be an up-and-down affair between two very good teams. However, since Frank Martin has taken over the Wildcats, he has lost all 4 games at the Phog by an average of over 17 points. They have never been within single digits. This is a game that Kansas is always up for, and K-State just can't seem to keep it close. Kansas is the better team on the glass, and the transition points that would usually help keep a game close likely won't be there for a K-State team that struggles to create turnovers.

Kansas Win by Double-Digits

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Syracuse at Providence

At a glance, I hate this prop. Syracuse has won both of their true road games by 15+, and Providence has yet to lose at home. Vegas says the Orange -13.5, Pomeroy says 16 for the 'Cuse, and Sagarin says 15.35.

Providence is tough to figure. They have a great record built on the carcasses of bad teams. They got blown out by a bad St. John's team, then made life a living hell on a very good Georgetown team. Which is the real Providence?

It seems like Syracuse is starting to get focused. They've won their last six games by 15+, and they know they are the team to beat in the Big East. The only possible trip-up is that they are looking ahead to a visit from Marquette on Saturday. Still, the Orange are by far the better team and will overwhelm PC on both ends of the floor. I'd avoid this one, but if I had to pick it, I'd take Syracuse.

Syracuse Win by 15+

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Texas at Iowa State

Another one that surprised me. I'll admit I've only watched Texas once, but are they so bad as to be in a pick 'em prop with ISU, or did Marcus Fizer find some eligibility no one told me about? Iowa State hasn't beaten Texas since 2005. Most spreads have this as a pick 'em, but I did see some sites with Texas -1. Pomeroy says Texas by 4 (64%) and Sagarin likes Iowa State by 1.05.

Bottom line, Texas is more athletic and a lot deeper. The Cyclones have a great player in Royce White, and they have some great shooters, but they don't defend well enough to slow down the Longhorns. This will likely stay close most of the way and some lead-changes wouldn't surprise me, but I definitely like Texas to come away with the victory.

Texas Win

SFTC Picks: 1-3-12

Michigan State at Wisconsin

I'm shocked this is up here as a straight pick prop. Yes, Wisconsin lost to Iowa. They also shot 3/28 from long-range. That won't happen again. Bo Ryan is a ridiculous 161-13 at home in his tenure at Wisconsin. They are 83% to win this game per Pomeroy. Despite the loss, Wisconsin still has the best ppp defense in the country and a more efficient offense than MSU. No-brainer pick.

Wisconsin Win

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Connecticut at Seton Hall

UConn is the bookie's favorite here by -2.5, but I wasn't surprised to see that Pomeroy had the Pirates as 1-point (53%) favorites and Sheridan liked the Pirates by 3.95. This is a case where based on body of work, Seton Hall should be favored, but UConn is favored due to name recognition.

The Huskies have struggled away from home, going 3-1 but only outscoring opponents by 10 total points. They are very, very young and have yet to really be tested this year, especially in a true road environment. Seton Hall has two experienced seniors in Pope and Theodore and haven't lost in their last 10 at home, including wins over Marquette and West Virginia. UConn has plenty of talent, but you won't see them at their best until late February or early March. I like Seton Hall to get the big upset win and possibly find themselves ranked come next Monday.

Seton Hall Win

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Louisville at St. John's

I usually hate these props, but this one isn't so bad. The Cardinals are -7.5 in Vegas, 9-point favorites per Pomeroy, and 12.41 favorites by Sagarin. Louisville may be coming off two losses, but they have taken care of their lesser opponents this year and are a much, much deeper team than St. John's. But what stands out for me is St. John's woeful 3-point shooting percentage. They have only hit on 26% of their attempts from beyond the arc. Their season-high for threes in a game is 7, and they have only hit for more than 5 on two occasions. Even at home they aren't shooting the three well. Even if the Johnnies are "red-hot" from three, by their standards they probably still lose this prop. Take the Cards.

Louisville Winning Margin

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Alabama at Georgia Tech

The odds all seem to favor the Crimson Tide. They get -4.5 from Vegas, 4 points from Pomeroy (68%), and 5.48 from Sagarin. The only possible edge I see for the Yellow Jackets is the man in the middle. Daniel Miller could give the Tide some trouble, as they've previously struggled a bit with talented bigs like Jordan Henriquez, Henry Sims, and Josh Benson in their three losses. Tech also has one of the most well-rounded players in the country in Glen Rice Jr., who leads his team in scoring, rebounds, assists, and steals. On any given night he can be a 20/10 guy or a 5/5 guy. That kind of inconsistency scares me.

Alabama is the better team and this is their last chance at a true non-conference road win. The Tide just have too many quality options to be held down by GT, even if JaMychal Green doesn't play, and they're the type of team that won't relinquish a lead early, especially against a team that shoots the three as Georgia Tech (29.3% on the season). True away games are tough, and it wouldn't shock me if a monster game from Rice allowed GT to steal a win, but Alabama is still the better team. This game screams trap, and I'd definitely sooner take the next prop at the same timeslot than this one.

Alabama Win

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Southern Methodist at Ole Miss

This one is straddling the money line. Vegas says Ole Miss -9.5, Pomeroy likes the Rebs by 11, and Sagarin says 11.47. A few things stand out in this one. First, Ole Miss is the much bigger team. Guys like Terrence Jones and Murphy Holloway are going to destroy SMU on the boards. Second, this is a complete contrast of styles. Mississippi plays a fast-tempo game whereas SMU is one of the slowest teams in the country -- the Rebs average 9.8 possessions more per team per game than the Mustangs.

In clash-of-style games, I look for two things to win out: the more athletic team and the home team. In this case, Ole Miss is both. I love Ole Miss to break their three game losing streak with a big win tonight. It wouldn't surprise me if this one was a 20+ point win.

Ole Miss Win by Double Digits

SFTC Picks: 1-1-12

Syracuse at DePaul

Just the one game today, so here's the quick breakdown. 'Cuse are 14-point favorites on the road against the perennial Big East doormat, but DePaul is much improved this year. Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young are growing up fast, and seniors Jeremiah Kelly and Krys Faber provide some experience. DePaul doesn't have the depth to beat Syracuse, but I can't see the Orange destroying them on the road. This is an improved Blue Demons team that will compete with just about anyone in the country, especially at home. Since joining the Big East in 2005-06, DePaul has never lost to Syracuse at home by more than 5. That may change today, but I don't expect it to be by 15 or more.

Any Other Result