Michigan State at Wisconsin
I'm shocked this is up here as a straight pick prop. Yes, Wisconsin lost to Iowa. They also shot 3/28 from long-range. That won't happen again. Bo Ryan is a ridiculous 161-13 at home in his tenure at Wisconsin. They are 83% to win this game per Pomeroy. Despite the loss, Wisconsin still has the best ppp defense in the country and a more efficient offense than MSU. No-brainer pick.
Wisconsin Win
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Connecticut at Seton Hall
UConn is the bookie's favorite here by -2.5, but I wasn't surprised to see that Pomeroy had the Pirates as 1-point (53%) favorites and Sheridan liked the Pirates by 3.95. This is a case where based on body of work, Seton Hall should be favored, but UConn is favored due to name recognition.
The Huskies have struggled away from home, going 3-1 but only outscoring opponents by 10 total points. They are very, very young and have yet to really be tested this year, especially in a true road environment. Seton Hall has two experienced seniors in Pope and Theodore and haven't lost in their last 10 at home, including wins over Marquette and West Virginia. UConn has plenty of talent, but you won't see them at their best until late February or early March. I like Seton Hall to get the big upset win and possibly find themselves ranked come next Monday.
Seton Hall Win
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Louisville at St. John's
I usually hate these props, but this one isn't so bad. The Cardinals are -7.5 in Vegas, 9-point favorites per Pomeroy, and 12.41 favorites by Sagarin. Louisville may be coming off two losses, but they have taken care of their lesser opponents this year and are a much, much deeper team than St. John's. But what stands out for me is St. John's woeful 3-point shooting percentage. They have only hit on 26% of their attempts from beyond the arc. Their season-high for threes in a game is 7, and they have only hit for more than 5 on two occasions. Even at home they aren't shooting the three well. Even if the Johnnies are "red-hot" from three, by their standards they probably still lose this prop. Take the Cards.
Louisville Winning Margin
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Alabama at Georgia Tech
The odds all seem to favor the Crimson Tide. They get -4.5 from Vegas, 4 points from Pomeroy (68%), and 5.48 from Sagarin. The only possible edge I see for the Yellow Jackets is the man in the middle. Daniel Miller could give the Tide some trouble, as they've previously struggled a bit with talented bigs like Jordan Henriquez, Henry Sims, and Josh Benson in their three losses. Tech also has one of the most well-rounded players in the country in Glen Rice Jr., who leads his team in scoring, rebounds, assists, and steals. On any given night he can be a 20/10 guy or a 5/5 guy. That kind of inconsistency scares me.
Alabama is the better team and this is their last chance at a true non-conference road win. The Tide just have too many quality options to be held down by GT, even if JaMychal Green doesn't play, and they're the type of team that won't relinquish a lead early, especially against a team that shoots the three as Georgia Tech (29.3% on the season). True away games are tough, and it wouldn't shock me if a monster game from Rice allowed GT to steal a win, but Alabama is still the better team. This game screams trap, and I'd definitely sooner take the next prop at the same timeslot than this one.
Alabama Win
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Southern Methodist at Ole Miss
This one is straddling the money line. Vegas says Ole Miss -9.5, Pomeroy likes the Rebs by 11, and Sagarin says 11.47. A few things stand out in this one. First, Ole Miss is the much bigger team. Guys like Terrence Jones and Murphy Holloway are going to destroy SMU on the boards. Second, this is a complete contrast of styles. Mississippi plays a fast-tempo game whereas SMU is one of the slowest teams in the country -- the Rebs average 9.8 possessions more per team per game than the Mustangs.
In clash-of-style games, I look for two things to win out: the more athletic team and the home team. In this case, Ole Miss is both. I love Ole Miss to break their three game losing streak with a big win tonight. It wouldn't surprise me if this one was a 20+ point win.
Ole Miss Win by Double Digits
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