Duke at Temple
Really surprised to see this as a ten-point prop for the Blue Devils. The spread has them -7, Pomeroy has them with a 5-point win, Sagarin says 6.21. Temple hasn't lost at home in over 2 years, though that last loss was a 32-point walloping by Kansas.
The more I looked at this game, the more some trends started to stick out. First, Temple has been struggling recently. Close wins over Rice, Buffalo (in OT), and Delaware aren't exactly inspiring. Meanwhile, Duke is taking off with Quinn Cook in the starting lineup. They are playing faster, the freshman has a ridiculous 17/0 turnover/assist ratio in the past two games, and they've been rebounding better. That's particularly worrying for a Temple team that has been doing poorly hitting the glass since the Eric injury.
Duke has the superior talent and will try to out-run the Owls. While the initial double-digit prop surprised me, I like Duke to cover.
Duke Win by Double Digits
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Marquette at Georgetown
The dreaded 3-point prop, and my own Marquette Warriors being the subject of it. Nothing but to get to it. Vegas like Georgetown -4.5, Pomeroy says Georgetown by 7, and Sagarin says 7.90. Marquette averages 5.6 threes per game and at 33.9% is a fairly average team from beyond the arc. And Buzz Williams emphasizes paint touches, which means he wants his offense to push it inside before settling for a shot from range.
Georgetown is the 11th best team in the nation at defending the three-point line, holding opponents to 27%. That tenacity will likely make things difficult on the Warriors, and as a team that has shown a tendency to pound down low with Gardner and let their guards drive rather than bombing shots, I could easily see Marquette going away from the three-ball as a weapon. Further, Georgetown's home court advantage and equivalent talent should allow them to control the pace of the game, which will slow things down. While this could lead to a close margin, Marquette sometimes struggles at a slower pace (see Norfolk State, LSU).
My only hesitation here is that Marquette could win this game outright. I don't expect them to, but Buzz Williams' team has a tendency to keep games close on the road, giving them the chance to steal them at the end. Still, if I were picking this one, I'd pick the Hoyas.
Georgetown Winning Margin
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West Virginia at Rutgers
Yes, Rutgers upset Florida, we're all happy for them, but seriously? Vegas has WVU as -3 on the road, Pomeroy says 4-point winners (62% probability) Sagarin says 6.89 for the Mountaineers. After losing to South Florida, Rutgers is 1-6 against Pomeroy top-150 opponents, including losses to LSU and Princeton at home. West Virginia is the much better team on both ends of the court. While home court is a big factor in the Big East, I can't pass on WVU here.
West Virginia Win
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Kansas State at Kansas
The Jayhawks are favored by -8.5, Pomeroy says 10, and Sagarin says 6.94. This will be an up-and-down affair between two very good teams. However, since Frank Martin has taken over the Wildcats, he has lost all 4 games at the Phog by an average of over 17 points. They have never been within single digits. This is a game that Kansas is always up for, and K-State just can't seem to keep it close. Kansas is the better team on the glass, and the transition points that would usually help keep a game close likely won't be there for a K-State team that struggles to create turnovers.
Kansas Win by Double-Digits
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Syracuse at Providence
At a glance, I hate this prop. Syracuse has won both of their true road games by 15+, and Providence has yet to lose at home. Vegas says the Orange -13.5, Pomeroy says 16 for the 'Cuse, and Sagarin says 15.35.
Providence is tough to figure. They have a great record built on the carcasses of bad teams. They got blown out by a bad St. John's team, then made life a living hell on a very good Georgetown team. Which is the real Providence?
It seems like Syracuse is starting to get focused. They've won their last six games by 15+, and they know they are the team to beat in the Big East. The only possible trip-up is that they are looking ahead to a visit from Marquette on Saturday. Still, the Orange are by far the better team and will overwhelm PC on both ends of the floor. I'd avoid this one, but if I had to pick it, I'd take Syracuse.
Syracuse Win by 15+
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Texas at Iowa State
Another one that surprised me. I'll admit I've only watched Texas once, but are they so bad as to be in a pick 'em prop with ISU, or did Marcus Fizer find some eligibility no one told me about? Iowa State hasn't beaten Texas since 2005. Most spreads have this as a pick 'em, but I did see some sites with Texas -1. Pomeroy says Texas by 4 (64%) and Sagarin likes Iowa State by 1.05.
Bottom line, Texas is more athletic and a lot deeper. The Cyclones have a great player in Royce White, and they have some great shooters, but they don't defend well enough to slow down the Longhorns. This will likely stay close most of the way and some lead-changes wouldn't surprise me, but I definitely like Texas to come away with the victory.
Texas Win
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